Friday, June 08, 2007

"Statistics are for Losers!!"

First off, I would like to thank Steve Harvey for that quote. I wish I had recorded the entire spiel he gave last month, but I think that is the quote of the year, maybe of a lifetime. I'm gonna try to do justice to what he said and paraphrase what I can remember as the concept:

"Statistics are for losers! Statistics are what people use as excuses for their shortcomings! It makes us feel comfortable to know that we're not the only one, or that the likelihood was low for a positive outcome. But if the odds are one-million to one, who's to say that you can't be the one! And how many would-be successes never achieved success because they looked at the statistics before they even tried! How many of that one-million never stepped to the plate in the first place! And that's all the more reason for you not to be like them, and to go for the 'impossible'; because those odds are based on how many cowards wouldn't step up to the plate after seeing the numbers!"

And I agree wholeheartedly. My sociology professor pointed out something that Strongly resonated with my own philosophy: "Always take the weak side."

In life, I find that most of our fear... is pointless. Perfect example: my homie Doc Makin and I were watching the game last night. As a sports-writer, he's really into the logistics of the game: stats, numbers, match-ups, coaching, history, etc. Based on all those things, Doc said he believes the Spurs to win in 6 games.

Me? Oh, I don't care WHAT the stats say. I think according to this principle: nobody comes to lose. As long as nobody comes to lose, everybody is gonna do what it takes to win. Winning and losing isn't a mathematical equation; it's something that is decided a game at a time. And if teams really want to win, they will make adjustments. If they make adjustments, obviously they can't be counted in or out according to stats that were fixed in unchanging stone. Oh yeah, a prediction might prove to be right, true enough. But there's a 50/50 chance of you being right to begin with; that's not a prediction, that's a coin toss.

And most things in life are really coin tosses. No matter what the odds are, it usually comes down to two questions: will you do it, and can you do it better. When you focus things down to what matters, you'll find that the only time odds matter is when you have options. If you have a slim chance of surviving a gunshot and a great chance of surviving a stab wound, you opt for the stab wound. If your only choice is the gunshot, then you learn to work with the only option you have.

In the case of winning and losing, as far as I'm concerned, there are no odds. Not for the people involved. All that one should be concerned with is attaining the better of the two outcomes. A greater team versus a lesser team; what difference does it make. The game is played because of the existance of CHANCE; that's why it's called a "game" like a "gamble", a "gambit". And how many chances does it take to win? One. And since nobody's perfect, the One exists eternally.

But then we lose. And when we lose, the next step is to figure out why. And granted, there's usually noticeable reasons why. But what we forget is that, just like there's reasons, there's also randoms. For instance, what if every shot attempted was hit? What if the other team mised more? And no, you can't throw up statistics--- "X missed because is not a great shooter"--- because stats didn't predict that LeBron would shoot consecutive contested shots in Game 5 against Detroit. What if this person wasn't hurt in the X quarter? What if the crowd was more excited? What if...

What does it matter?

If I was a basketball player, and I missed every shot in the game, do I need to know my shot percentage for the year? No. Because that paper is only a record, not an advisor. All I need to know is that there's room for improvement; and if I give it my all, it doesn't matter how great that room is. And so, I take it upon myself to practice my own shot to perfection.

When we come up short, we come up with statistics to give ourselves a break. "Well, you're not a great shooter, so you're not gonna have a great game from the perimeter". That's called self-fulfilling prophecy. If my goal is greatness, why do I need somebody to tell me reasons why greatness can't be achieved? The mark of a true loser is one who allows the mistakes of the past to dictate his future. And ALL STATISTICS ARE PAST. Something to think about.

You can always find excuses, but I thought we were out to find something more important...

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